Three of top 4 seeds bumped in Big East quarters

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/12/2010 -

NEW YORK (AP) -It was a bad day to be a favorite at the Big East tournament.

Three of the conference's top four teams were beaten in the quarterfinals Thursday at Madison Square Garden, jumbling the league's NCAA picture and setting up a pair of surprising matchups in the semifinals.

Third-seeded West Virginia was the only one to escape - and the Mountaineers needed a 3-point bank shot at the buzzer from Da'Sean Butler to beat 11th-seeded Cincinnati 54-51.

``I think that's what is great about tournaments,'' Villanova coach Jay Wright said after his 10th-ranked team lost 80-76 to Marquette. ``We've all played each other. We all know each other. I think that's what makes the games great.''

Lazar Hayward and the fifth-seeded Golden Eagles (22-10) will play in the first semifinal Friday night against No. 8 seed Georgetown. The 22nd-ranked Hoyas (22-9) were a 91-84 winner over top-seeded and third-ranked Syracuse, the league's outright regular-season champion.

West Virginia takes the court in the nightcap against seventh-seeded Notre Dame (23-10), which grinded out a 50-45 victory over 16th-ranked Pittsburgh, the No. 2 seed.

It's the fourth time in Big East tournament history that three of the top four seeds failed to reach the semifinals. Of the four teams remaining, Georgetown is the only one with a title.

All of a sudden, the Big Apple is upset city.

``So much for the double byes, huh? I do think there's some advantage to being able to play a little bit,'' Notre Dame coach Mike Brey said.

Indeed, the double-bye format has turned into a major topic at the Big East tournament.

Last year, the first time all 16 teams participated, the top four seeds were awarded double byes straight into the quarterfinals.

Those four teams went 2-2 in their openers, with No. 2 Pittsburgh losing to rival West Virginia and third-seeded Connecticut falling short in a six-overtime epic against Syracuse.

This season, the teams with double byes were 1-3.

``I'm not a fan of the double bye, but I don't know that that had that much to do with it,'' West Virginia coach Bob Huggins said.

Despite his team's early elimination, Wright remains a fan of this format.

``If we would have won, you only have two more games to win a championship,'' he said. ``We all know the NCAA tournament is important. Your top teams aren't beat down. ... There's still a great advantage to only playing three games in a tournament and having a chance to win it all.''

Despite the surprises, the top eight finishers in the Big East regular-season standings are still expected to make the NCAA tournament. Seeding, however, could change based on this wild week in New York.

``The league is so good. The teams are so good. I think usually when you get a double bye, you think in most situations you're going to get a team that's a big difference,'' Pitt coach Jamie Dixon said. ``In this league, that's not the case.''

Georgetown and Marquette had each lost twice during the season to the teams they beat Thursday.

``It's just who you get and where they finish. It's such a long year, guys are going to be playing better in January than other teams,'' Dixon added. ``So a double bye had nothing to do with it. It's just a team that's playing well against another team that's playing very well. Probably the teams with the best records down the stretch are playing together in the quarterfinal game. And that's really what you had.

``I think we won eight of our last nine. They won their last four,'' Dixon said, referring to Notre Dame. ``Those two teams playing in the quarterfinals. It speaks to our league.''Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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