Braves, Brewers conclude set at Turner Field

Baseball Betting Lines

07/18/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Braves are shooting for a split of a four-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers Sunday afternoon, when the two ballclubs wrap up a lengthy set from Turner Field.

The Braves have dropped two in a row and three of four games since a four-game winning streak and were beaten, 6-3, in Saturday's contest. Tim Hudson was aiming for his 10th win of the season, but was rocked for six runs, including five in the seventh inning, in 6 2/3 innings to fall to 9-5 on the year.

"I wasn't nearly as crisp as I would have liked to be in the seventh," Hudson said after the game.

Matt Diaz hit a two-run homer and Eric Hinske added a solo blast for the Braves, whose lead in the NL East slipped to 4 1/2 games ahead of Philadelphia. The New York Mets are five games behind the Braves.

Struggling Braves starter Derek Lowe gets the nod this afternoon and has lost three straight trips to the hill. He is only 1-4 with a 4.22 earned run average in his last seven starts, with the Braves going 2-5 over that period.

Lowe last pitched in Sunday's 3-0 loss against the Mets and allowed two runs on eight hits over 5 1/3 innings, falling to 9-8 in 19 starts to go along with a 4.35 earned run average.

The right-hander, who is 6-3 in nine home starts this season, beat Milwaukee back on May 12 at Miller Park with six innings of two-run ball in his team's 9-2 win. He is 4-1 in 10 career games (8 starts) against the Brewers.

Milwaukee is playing good baseball right now and will try to win its second straight series today after sweeping Pittsburgh in three games prior to taking two of three matchups so far with the Braves.

Chris Narveson threw six innings of two-run ball and John Axford struck out two batters over 1 1/3 innings of relief for his 11th save. Prince Fielder homered to lead off the decisive seventh inning and Corey Hart stroked a three-run double to highlight the frame.

The game got a little heated as Fielder led off the eighth. The first pitch from Atlanta reliever Jonny Venters sailed over the head of the All-Star first baseman. Home plate umpire Angel Hernandez immediately issued a warning to both benches, but the lefty's next pitch drilled Fielder in the back, resulting in an ejection for him and Braves manager Bobby Cox.

"I was just trying to go right at him," Venters said. "The first one was a breaking ball and it got away from me a little bit. The second pitch was a sinker and it just ran away from me. Unfortunately, it hit him. There was nothing intentional about it. It was a three-run game."

Milwaukee will visit the Pirates for four games after this set and will hand the ball to Manny Parra on Sunday. Parra is just 3-6 with a 4.65 earned run average in 26 games, nine of which have been starts, this season. He was 2-0 in three outings before losing to San Francisco the previous time out on July 8 at Miller Park.

Parra was shelled for six runs -- four earned -- and 10 hits in five innings and has now lost three of his last five decisions. The lefty is 0-1 with an 8.10 ERA in two relief appearances against the Braves this season and is 0-1 in four career games (2 starts) in this series.

The Braves had won five straight and seven of their last eight versus the Brewers before losing on Friday.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

NFL Betting Lines

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