Bank On It: Butler's three at the buzzer lifts WVU over Cincy

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/12/2010 - New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - De'Sean Butler's closely-contested three- pointer off the glass as time expired advanced his seventh-ranked Mountaineers and ended Cincinnati's improbable march through the conference gauntlet, as West Virginia survived an upset-riddled quarterfinal round at the Big East Tournament, 54-51.

The game appeared destined for overtime after going through a wild chain of events in the final 6.4 seconds. First, Dion Dixon lost control of the basketball along the left sideline, and the ball eventually caromed off his knee and out of bounds. The Mountaineers (25-6) took advantage, with Butler catching the ball out near the top of the arc, rising and firing over Cincinnati freshman star Lance Stephenson for the game-winner.

Several Bearcats (18-15) fell to the floor at the horn. Stephenson had the best look at Butler's basket that downed his club despite his 19-point, seven- rebound stat line.

Kevin Jones scored 17, Butler added 15 and Devin Ebanks totaled 10 for the Mountaineers, who are the only top-four seed left at Madison Square Garden. They will face Notre Dame in the second semifinal, with Georgetown and Marquette taking the court first on Friday.

A struggle marked in equal parts solid defense and offensive ineptitude shifted over the final three-plus minutes. Trailing 47-42, Cincinnati turned to its season-long shaky perimeter shooting to get back into the game. First, Deonta Vaughn's trey cut the deficit to two then Darnell Wilks crashed the offensive glass for a game-tying putback with just under three minutes to play.

Jones drained a jumper then Stephenson made 1-of-2 from the foul line. Jones was in the right place at the right time moments later, finding a scoring chance off a loose-ball scrum for a 51-48 lead with 1:07 to play. Again, the Bearcats stepped out beyond their comfort zone, as Stephenson -- a 27-percent three-point shooter on the conference's worst, and the nation's 277th-best, long-distance shooting team, -- buried a right-wing trey for a 51-51 stalemate with 42.1 seconds remaining.

An Ebanks missed opportunity resulted in a dead ball with just 6.4 seconds left. After a Cincinnati timeout, Dixon lost control of a left-handed dribble for a turnover. West Virginia then found Butler out top, he worked his way to the top of the arc, and connected on a difficult shot over Stephenson's outstretched arms.

After holding a 26-23 lead at the half, the Mountaineers first stretched their lead to seven at 30-23 then to eight at 33-25 on a free throw by Cam Thoroughman. The margin grew to nine at 45-36 on a Jones layup with just under seven minutes to go, but the Bearcats refused to go away, scoring seven in a row moments later for a 47-45 deficit.

Game Notes

West Virginia won both meetings this season, including a 74-68 decision back on February 27th...Cincinnati, however, still leads the all-time series, 10-8...Vaughn totaled nine points for the Bearcats...Cincinnati made 5-of-14 threes, but shot just 33.3 percent from the floor...One night after dominating Louisville on the glass, both teams got their fair share of offensive boards with the Bearcats grabbing 14 and West Virginia 17.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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